The market is buzzing because U.S. refineries are churning out oil at a speed we haven’t seen since before the pandemic. Last week the Energy Information Administration logged 17.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude throughput – a full 1.2 million bpd above the average for the past six months and the highest level since September 2019. The surge comes as the Iran‑U.S. tension spikes, prompting traders to hedge against potential supply shocks in the Middle East.
What happened
The EIA’s weekly refinery report showed all 135 operating plants running at an average 129 % of their nominal capacity. Major Gulf complexes in Texas and Louisiana posted the biggest gains, each adding roughly 300,000 bpd of run‑rate. Meanwhile, the Midwest’s crude imports from Canada dipped 5 % as shippers turned to domestic supply to avoid any geopolitical risk. The spike pushed the national gasoline price index up 3 % month‑over‑month, already hovering near $3.75 per gallon in the Midwest.
Why it matters for dispatchers/drivers
Higher refinery runs mean more product on the road, but also tighter margins for carriers. Spot rates for dry‑van loads have jumped 12 % in the last two weeks, while tanker and intermodal lanes are seeing a 7‑9 % bump. Dispatchers will see more freight offers, but they’ll also have to contend with tighter trailer availability as shippers scramble for equipment. Drivers can expect longer hauls and tighter delivery windows, especially on the Gulf‑to‑Midwest corridor, where congestion at Houston’s Port of Houston is already hitting 30‑minute wait times.
My take
The U.S. is essentially “fuel‑flooding” the market to blunt any Iran‑induced supply shock. It’s a smart move for the energy lobby, but it’s a double‑edged sword for us on the road. Higher volumes mean more work, but also more volatility in rates and tighter equipment pools. Dispatchers who can pivot quickly and secure reliable equipment will cash in, while drivers who ignore the surge risk missing out on premium loads. – Ekjot Singh
What you should do
- **Lock in rates now**: Use a freight broker or load board to secure contracts for Gulf‑to‑Midwest lanes before rates normalize.
- **Check equipment availability**: Reach out to your fleet or leasing partners to ensure you have enough dry‑van or reefer capacity.
- **Stay informed**: Follow EK Dispatch Academy’s market‑watch webinars (*/curriculum*) for real‑time updates on rate trends and equipment shortages.