[The price of diesel has crept past the $5‑per‑gallon mark, and it’s not because crude is soaring. It’s a refinery problem that’s choking the supply chain and draining trucker wallets.]
What happened
FreightWaves interviewed Aaron Decker, senior analyst at the American Petroleum Institute, who said the current diesel surge stems from a refining capacity crunch. Since early 2024, the U.S. has lost ~1.2 million barrels per day of distillate‑processing capability due to unplanned outages, maintenance backlogs, and a handful of plants permanently shut after the Russia‑Ukraine war disrupted feedstock imports. Crack spreads— the profit margin between crude and refined diesel—have collapsed to $4.30 per barrel, far below the $12‑$14 spread that kept refineries humming pre‑2022. Low inventories compound the issue: the EIA reports distillate stocks at 2.1 million barrels, the lowest level since 2015. While crude oil sits around $78/barrel, the bottleneck is in the middle, not at the wellhead.
Why it matters for dispatchers/drivers
When refiners can’t turn crude into diesel, the price per gallon spikes and the supply chain snarls. Dispatchers see carriers rejecting loads because fuel costs erode margins; some shippers add fuel surcharges that still don’t cover the gap. Drivers face lower take‑home pay after fuel‑cost deductions, and many are forced to run longer hauls to make the same net earnings, increasing wear‑and‑tear and fatigue risk. For fleets, the cost‑per‑mile jump from $0.55 to $0.68 can turn a profitable route into a loss leader in days. The shortage also drives fuel‑theft incidents up 17% YoY, as desperate drivers look for cheaper, illicit sources.
My take
The narrative that “oil prices are the problem” is a lazy excuse. The real issue is a refinery capacity deficit that the industry ignored for years. Politicians love to blame foreign wars, but the data shows it’s our own aging plants and insufficient investment that are killing diesel supplies. Until refineries get the green light—and the capital—to restart and modernize, truckers will keep paying the price.
What you should do
- **Lock in fuel contracts** now while prices are still trending upward; a 3‑month fixed‑rate can save **$0.03‑$0.05/gal**.
- **Re‑evaluate route profitability** using EK Dispatch Academy’s fuel‑cost calculator (see /curriculum → fuel‑management).
- **Educate drivers** on fuel‑theft red flags and report suspicious pumps; our safety modules cover this.
— Ekjot Singh, Founder, EK Dispatch Academy