Deere’s latest earnings call sent shockwaves through the freight world. The farm‑equipment giant trimmed its full‑year profit range to $4.75 billion‑$5 billion, down from the previous $4.5 billion‑$5 billion estimate. More importantly, it warned that a real rebound in agricultural spending won’t materialize until 2027, not this year. That timeline shift means fewer loads for tractor‑trailers hauling seed, fertilizer, and heavy equipment across the Midwest and Great Plains.
What happened
John Flannery, CEO of Deere, told analysts the 2026 crop‑year has been a “perfect storm” of low commodity prices, lingering supply‑chain snarls, and a 12% drop in new equipment orders YoY. The company posted Q3 revenue of $12.4 bn, down 5% from Q2, and warned that inventory levels remain high, forcing dealers to offer deeper discounts. While Deere expects a modest 2% revenue lift in Q4, it sees the farm‑equipment market staying flat through 2026, with a genuine uptick only in 2027 when planting acreage is projected to rise 8%.
Why it matters for dispatchers/drivers
Most of us don’t haul corn or soybeans directly, but we move the parts, pallets, and heavy‑machinery that keep farms running. A slowdown at Deere ripples through the supply chain: fewer new tractors mean fewer outbound loads for flat‑bed carriers, lower demand for refrigerated units hauling feed, and a dip in intermodal traffic for parts moving from ports to inland depots. Dispatchers will see a 3‑5% dip in load volume on typical Midwest lanes (Chicago‑Des Moines, Dallas‑Kansas City) through the end of 2026. That translates to tighter margins and more competition for the remaining freight.
My take
Deere’s pessimistic outlook is a wake‑up call for anyone relying on ag‑related freight. The farm sector is not the growth engine it pretended to be in 2023‑24. If you’re still betting on endless flat‑bed work from new‑equipment orders, you’re headed for a hard‑landing. It’s time to diversify your lanes, lock in contracts with non‑ag shippers, and push your drivers to become multi‑modal pros. The market will correct; the smart ones will survive.
What you should do
- **Re‑evaluate your load board filters** – prioritize construction, energy, and consumer goods lanes that are still booming.
- **Negotiate rate‑guarantee contracts** with regional manufacturers who need reliable flat‑bed service regardless of ag cycles.
- **Train your team** on load‑optimization tools and ELD compliance to squeeze every mile out of a thinner schedule. Check out EK Dispatch Academy’s **/curriculum** for advanced load‑matching tactics.
— Ekjot Singh, Founder, EK Dispatch Academy